Current working papers and manuscripts under review. Drafts are available upon request. For published work, see the Research page.
Under Review
Actually I Don’t: The Impact of Warrantless Arrest Laws on Divorce and Marriage
With Ben Brewer. Under review at Review of Economics of the Household, April 2026.
Between 1976 and 2016, most U.S. states adopted laws authorizing or requiring police to make warrantless arrests at the scene of a domestic violence call. These laws were intended to protect victims, but they may also deter victims from calling police in the first place. We estimate the effect of mandatory, preferred, and discretionary arrest provisions on marriage and divorce using CPS microdata on more than 6 million adults, recently corrected law classifications, and difference-in-differences methods robust to staggered adoption. We find no detectable effect on the probability of being divorced or married at the population level. The null holds across estimators, outcome definitions, the CPS ASEC, the CPS June Fertility and Marital History Supplement, and vital statistics records. A simulation-based power analysis confirms we can rule out effects as large as those found for unilateral divorce reform; supplementary enforcement analysis suggests reporting deterrence as one possible channel.
JEL: J12, K36, K42, I18. Keywords: domestic violence, warrantless arrest, mandatory arrest, divorce, marriage, difference-in-differences.
The Impact of Anti-Bullying Laws on Youth Organ Donation
With Ben Brewer. Under review at Economics Letters, March 2026.
Since 1999, all 50 U.S. states and D.C. have adopted anti-bullying legislation (ABLs), which have been shown to reduce suicides among 14 to 18 year-old females. Using the universe of deceased organ donors from 1993 to 2024, we employ a difference-in-differences design to estimate ABLs’ spillover effects on organ supply. ABLs reduce per capita suicide-based organ donors aged 14 to 18 among females by 0.007 per 100,000, about 88 percent of the sample mean, with no significant effect for males. The decline is broad-based across major donated organ types and is not accompanied by evidence of lower transplant quality. Though ABLs impose an organ-supply cost, the benefits of prevented suicides clearly dominate; the loss nevertheless underscores the urgency of expanding living donation and increasing organ procurement yields.
Builds on our earlier JPAM paper on anti-bullying laws and adolescent suicidal behaviors. See Research.
JEL: I12, I18. Keywords: anti-bullying laws, organ donation, suicide, teen mental health.
Majoritarian Politics and Violence Against Caste-Based Minorities: Evidence from India
With Devika Hazra. Under review at Economic Development and Cultural Change, March 2026.
We examine whether the 2014 electoral victory of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) led to an increase in crimes against Scheduled Castes in India. Using a difference-in-differences design and administrative data from the National Crime Records Bureau covering 36 states and union territories over 2006 to 2019, we find that states where BJP won majority vote shares in 2014 experienced roughly a 40 percent increase in Scheduled Caste atrocity rates relative to control states in the post-election period. The finding is robust to falsification tests with alternative post-treatment cutoffs, jackknife estimation, and alternative functional forms of the outcome variable. Placebo tests using broader mortality outcomes yield null results, providing little support for a general deterioration in law and order. Mechanism analysis identifies a statistically significant decline in chargesheeting and arrest rates specifically for Scheduled Caste crimes in treated states, consistent with weakened institutional deterrence rather than a spurious reporting effect.
JEL: D72, J15, K42, O17. Keywords: majoritarian politics, caste-based violence, Scheduled Castes, India, difference-in-differences.
Majoritarian Politics and Gender-Based Violence: Evidence from India
With Devika Hazra. Under review at Journal of Development Studies, February 2025.
We examine whether the 2014 electoral victory of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) led to an increase in crimes against women in India. Using a difference-in-differences design on state-level administrative crime data, we find that states where BJP won majority vote shares in 2014 experienced roughly a 49 percent increase in reported crimes against women in the post-election period relative to control states. The finding is validated through event studies and a range of falsification tests. Full abstract available upon request.
JEL: D72, J16, K42, O17. Keywords: majoritarian politics, gender-based violence, crimes against women, India, difference-in-differences.
Working Papers
Are LGB Individuals with Disabilities Underserved? Evidence on Disparities in Social Security Disability Benefit Receipt
With Dhaval Dave and Joseph J. Sabia. March 2026.
This paper examines disparities in Social Security Disability Insurance (SSDI) benefit receipt between LGB and non-LGB households with disabilities, drawing on survey data spanning the COVID-19 pandemic period. Supported by the Social Security Administration (via the UW Madison Retirement and Disability Research Center). Full abstract available upon request.
JEL: H55, I14, J14, J15. Keywords: SSDI, LGB, disability, health disparities, social insurance.
Athletic Participation and Welfare: Using Title IX to Measure the Effect of Sports on Adult Women’s Program Participation
February 2026.
This paper uses Title IX as a source of exogenous variation in female athletic participation to estimate its long-run effects on adult women’s means-tested program participation. Using CPS-ASEC individual-level data on women ages 25 to 54 across birth cohorts 1944 to 1986, I instrument for female athletic participation with the interaction of 1971 state-level male athletic participation rates and a post-Title IX indicator. IV estimates indicate that increases in female athletic participation during adolescence reduce subsequent reliance on means-tested programs in adulthood, with robustness across alternative specifications, control sets, and falsification tests using pre-Title IX cohorts.
Companion to our JHR paper on Title IX, female athletic participation, and crime. See Research.
JEL: I38, J16, J22, Z22. Keywords: Title IX, female athletic participation, means-tested programs, instrumental variables, welfare.
Can Trade Shocks Affect Crime Rates? Evidence from (Renegotiated) NAFTA
With Devika Hazra. September 2025.
This paper examines whether trade shocks associated with NAFTA and its renegotiation under USMCA affect crime rates across U.S. local labor markets. We use shift-share exposure to Mexican import competition at the commuting zone level and administrative crime data to estimate the causal effect of trade exposure on property and violent crime. Full abstract available upon request.
JEL: F14, F16, K42, R11. Keywords: NAFTA, USMCA, trade shocks, crime, shift-share, commuting zones.
Work in Progress
“Trade Shocks, Birth, and Mortality: The Population-Health Response to NAFTA and USMCA in U.S. Commuting Zones, 1985-2023.”
A companion project to the NAFTA crime paper, examining population-health outcomes across U.S. commuting zones over nearly four decades of trade regime change. JEL: F14, F16, I10, J13.
“Vehicular Heat Strokes and Infant Mortality.” With Ben Brewer. Examines the incidence and correlates of pediatric vehicular heat-stroke fatalities, with attention to seasonal and geographic variation. JEL: I10, I12, R41.
“Anti-Hazing Laws, Mental Health, and Student Success.” Examines whether state anti-hazing laws affect adolescent and young-adult mental health and educational outcomes. JEL: I12, I18, I21, K36.
